Global Study Maps 60% Of Earth’s Land As Beyond Local Ecological Limits

A detailed analysis using two global ecosystem indicators reveals more than half of Earth’s land is already operating outside safe environmental conditions

POTSDAM, Germany — More than half of Earth’s land surface has pushed past what scientists call local ecological boundaries, or limits that help keep our planet’s life-support systems stable. These boundaries are part of a scientific framework known as planetary boundaries, which identifies the safe environmental conditions that have allowed human civilization to flourish for thousands of years.

According to a new study led by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 60% of global land has already crossed these limits, and 38% has entered a high-risk zone. Once an area is in that zone, it faces a much greater likelihood of ecological breakdown. This happens not necessarily overnight, but over time, as the capacity of ecosystems to regulate climate, support biodiversity, and provide essential services declines.

The findings, published in One Earth, aren’t meant to declare the planet doomed, but they are a warning light that’s difficult to ignore.

A Global Checkup for the Planet

If the Earth were a patient, this study is like a comprehensive medical exam. It doesn’t just check temperature and pulse, but runs a detailed scan of the whole system. Scientists wanted to answer a deceptively simple question: How much of the world’s land is still operating within safe environmental limits?

The “planetary boundaries” concept divides Earth’s environmental systems into nine critical categories, from climate stability to biodiversity, ocean health, nutrient cycles, and freshwater availability. Two of these — climate change and biosphere integrity — are considered “core” boundaries because they underpin all the others.

Biosphere integrity is essentially the health of the planet’s living systems: forests, grasslands, wetlands, and the countless plants, animals, and microorganisms that keep them functioning. Unlike climate change, which can be measured with one global metric like carbon dioxide concentration, biosphere integrity varies enormously from place to place. That makes it harder to track and harder to manage.

How Do You Measure Nature’s Health?

To solve this, the research team used two indicators:

1. HANPPHol: Short for Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (Holocene baseline). This measures the share of nature’s productivity (the plant growth that forms the base of all food webs) that humans take for themselves through farming, logging, and other uses.
2. EcoRisk: A measure of how far an ecosystem has shifted from its natural state, based on changes in vegetation structure and the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, and water.

Both indicators can be calculated anywhere on Earth and compared against a preindustrial baseline representing conditions before large-scale human disruption.

The researchers used a global vegetation model to map these indicators for every year since 1600, across a grid where each square represents 0.5° × 0.5° of latitude and longitude. That’s about 34 miles north-to-south everywhere, but the east-to-west distance varies with latitude.

A Timeline of Change: 1600 to Today

The historical maps tell a striking story. In 1600, much of the planet was still within safe limits, though certain regions in Europe, India, China, and the eastern United States already showed signs of stress due to long-established agriculture.

Things changed rapidly after 1900. For one key global indicator, the proportion of nature’s productivity appropriated by humans, the “safe” threshold was crossed around this time. This was the era of major agricultural expansion in North America and Central Eurasia, when forests and grasslands were converted into cropland at an unprecedented pace.

By 1900, about 37% of the world’s land had already crossed local ecological thresholds. By today, that number has risen to 60%, with 38% in high-risk territory.

It’s Not Just Farming Anymore

Agriculture remains a major driver of ecological change, especially in Europe, Asia, and North America, where intensive land use has left few ecosystems untouched. But the study also found that remote areas without heavy farming are now under increasing stress.

High-latitude regions like the Arctic and high-altitude regions like the Tibetan Plateau are showing elevated EcoRisk scores. This is not because of plows or bulldozers, but due to climate change. Warming temperatures, shifts in rainfall patterns, and nitrogen deposition from fossil fuel use are altering ecosystems in ways that can ripple far beyond their borders.

Why This Matters to People Everywhere

When ecosystems cross these boundaries, it’s not just wildlife that suffers. Humans depend on healthy ecosystems for services we often take for granted:

• Pollination of crops by insects and other animals.
• Water purification through wetlands and forested watersheds.
• Carbon storage in soils and vegetation, which helps stabilize the climate.
• Flood and drought regulation by healthy landscapes.

Lose these services, and we face higher costs, greater risks, and more frequent crises.

Temperate grasslands and forests, which include much of Europe and eastern North America, have some of the highest levels of boundary transgression. In contrast, tropical rainforests and boreal forests in less populated areas are closer to their natural state, though they’re increasingly pressured by logging, agriculture, and climate change.

Maps That Point the Way

One of the most valuable parts of this research is its specificity. Instead of a single global average, the study provides detailed maps showing exactly where ecosystems are most at risk. This kind of spatial information can guide governments, conservation groups, and communities in deciding where to focus their efforts.

For example, if a region’s HANPPHol score is high, that may point to the need for more sustainable farming practices. If its EcoRisk score is high despite low human land use, that suggests climate impacts or other diffuse pressures that need a different kind of response.

A Narrowing Safe Space

The takeaway is sobering: The “safe operating space” for Earth’s land ecosystems is shrinking. We haven’t yet reached the point where every ecosystem is in crisis, but the trend is moving in that direction — and fast.

The study’s authors stress that this is not just a scientific curiosity. It’s a call for urgent, targeted action to protect what remains intact and restore what has been degraded. That means investing in sustainable agriculture, protecting and reconnecting natural habitats, and tackling climate change head-on.

As with any health checkup, the earlier the intervention, the better the prognosis. Even for a planet.

Disclaimer: This summary is based on a peer-reviewed scientific study. Some wording has been adapted for clarity and accessibility. For full technical details and exact wording, consult the original publication.