RALEIGH, N.C. — Plenty of people have a favorite travel destination that they look forward to visiting year after year, while others enjoy exploring and opt to always travel somewhere new on each trip. Regardless of where you fall on the vacationing spectrum, concerning new research suggests climate change may leave many reconsidering or even canceling their travel plans in the decades to come.
Scientists at North Carolina State University report that while most current tourists visiting a mountain destination in southern Mexico wouldn’t change their near-term plans to visit due to climate change, over two-thirds admitted they would or might change their plans by 2060 if conditions changed drastically.
Moreover, 70 percent of respondents would change the length of their stay in response to climate change by the year 2060, and some even said they’d change the timing of their trip. This work indicates climate change will likely impact not only the total number of tourists traveling in the future, but also the timing and duration of those trips. Study authors explain this work holds major implications for the entire tourism and travel industries in the decades to come.
“In other studies, we’ve seen that for some tourists, their attachment to a place will mean they’ll come back, even as climactic and environmental conditions change,” says study co-author Erin Seekamp, Goodnight Distinguished Professor in Coastal Resilience and Sustainability at NC State, in a university release. “But there are a lot of people who are uncertain. That’s something the tourism industry needs to heed with caution. That uncertainty means you could potentially lose a substantial amount of your clientele. Alternatively, it could mean there are shifts toward tourism in other seasons.”
The research team surveyed a total of 188 tourists who traveled to a region in the Sierra Norte mountains of southern Mexico, known for its cloud forests and rich culture. There are eight Indigenous communities in the Pueblos Mancomunados of Oaxaca. Tourists visiting this area typically enjoy nature-based activities like hiking and bird watching, as well as cultural tours and festivals.
While other studies in the past have analyzed the impact of climate change on beach and ski-related tourism, the team at NCSU set out to investigate if climate change would spark shifts in different mountain destinations instead. More specifically, in Latin America.
Through surveys dispersed at local festivals, popular attractions, and restaurants throughout the Pueblos Mancomunados, study authors asked tourists about their travel plans under two different climate change scenarios. The first described more modest changes by 2030, while the other entailed more dramatic shifts in temperature, precipitation, risk of wildfire, decreases in cloud forest coverage, and lower biodiversity by the year 2060.
Most tourists said they wouldn’t change their travel plans under the less extreme 2023 scenario; 36 percent answered “yes” or “maybe” to a question about whether they would change their travel plans under the first scenario. However, by 2060, over two-thirds said they would indeed change their plans.
Interestingly, study authors saw no meaningful differences in how long tourists planned to stay in the near term – yet 70 percent said they would end up shortening their trips by 2060. Also, among visitors who said they would or might change their plans in either scenario, many would shift the timing of their visit as well.
“Our study found that in the longer term, more people might feel that a place is less desirable to visit,” Prof. Seekamp explains. “But what our study doesn’t really capture is more severe change that could happen any time. Tourism-dependent communities need to have plans in place to sustain their economies – and to ensure their way of life and heritage values can continue.”
Prof. Seekamp notes that certain tourists may continue traveling, even under less-than-ideal conditions, similar to “last chance” tourism trends. Others may be more unlikely to change plans if they’ve already invested in the trip. Still, this work strongly suggests there are many who will change their plans in the future, and researchers need to do more work to understand the nuances behind this trend. Further research can help countless relevant businesses, including the Indigenously owned Expediciones Sierra Norte in the Pueblos Mancomunados of Oaxaca.
“Indigenously owned and managed tourism businesses could consider a variety of different strategies to bolster their adaptive capacity in the face of a changing climate,” concludes the study’s lead author Ginger Deason, a former doctoral student at NC State. “Considering timing of tourists’ travel and developing new tourism products to appeal to the domestic market are two good strategies.”
The study is published in the journal Tourism and Hospitality.
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